Programs Drive Attendance, Makerspaces Evolve but Rural Libraries Wilt.

Program attendance is alive and vibrant - perhaps you’ve even participated yourself. (Do they teach event management in MLIS programs?). FY2023 brought in 111.8 million program attendees, essentially back to the FY2019 peak of 116 million. This is just a huge audience: Children’s programming recovered. Adult programming recovered. The virtual programming that libraries started as a last resort under the COVID hasn’t disappeared but settled into the core service. (I think there are many businesses which can relate to this).

Yet, hidden in this recovery is a structural problem regarding the net number of library outlets in the US: The public library branch network is shrinking, and the communities losing physical access are the ones least able to absorb the loss. The aggregate recovery numbers are accurate, but they can mask an unsurprising geographic inequality - soon to be known as ‘library desert’ that goes unacknowledged.

Key Data — Services & Spaces

+449% Growth in public libraries with makerspaces, FY2014–23 (210 → 1,152)

+364% Growth in digital literacy programs, FY2014–23 (82K → 380K)

−140 Net outlet change in FY2020 (42 openings vs. 182 closures)

Programs Are Community

Due to COVID, Children’s programming collapsed 60% from 4.47 million programs in FY2019 to 1.84 million in FY2020. Yet, by FY2023, these programs recovered to almost match the 2019 number at 4.36 million. Adult programming followed a similar arc: 1.58 million in FY2019, down to 618,000 in FY2020, back to 1.56 million in FY2023. It shows both the resiliency and the patron value of these programs that they recovered.

Patron visits showed a similar pattern: From116 million in FY2019, to 41.8 million in FY2020, and back to 111.8 million in FY2023. For libraries to recover in this manner with budget constraints and headcount limitations is a significant operational achievement. Imagine where the numbers could be if the library could stay open more hours, staffing at a modestly higher level and acquisition budgets indexed to inflation. (Suck it ‘data center!’)

As any business will acknowledge virtual meetings are common place and this is no less the case for virtual library programming. What began as expediency — Zoom story times, webinar‑based digital literacy workshops, streamed author talks — were the MVPs for future practice. And the programming continues to expand access: homebound patrons, parents who can’t easily travel, rural residents whose nearest branch is 40 miles away, working adults who can join an evening skills workshop online but not in person. The infrastructure serving it didn’t exist before FY2020. Thanks COVID!

Keeping it Digital

Digital literacy programs grew from 82,000 in FY2014 to 380,000 in FY2023 — a 364% increase, by far the fastest‑growing category. Libraries have always been in the literacy business — reading, information, research. Digital literacy is simply the current extension of that mission: identifying misinformation, protecting personal data, navigating online services, accessing telehealth, completing digital job applications. As previous reported data indicates, patrons are using their own equipment making this usage deliberate and calculated. For older adults, lower‑income residents, recent immigrants, and anyone with limited technology access, these programs are often the difference between participating in civic and economic life or being shut out. If that’s not mission accomplished I don’t know what is.

Makerspaces, Outlets, and the Geography of Inequity

Makerspace growth is striking: 210 libraries in FY2014 to 1,152 in FY2023 — a 449% increase. Estimated aggregate makerspace area expanded from ~452,000 square feet to ~2.68 million. Makerspaces now exist in about 7.2% of public libraries. .

This trend is exciting but makerspaces require capital, staff time, equipment maintenance, and floor space. A suburban county with a strong property tax base can build one (or solicit a significant donation). A rural township with flat revenue cannot. So makerspace access with real workforce development value is so far concentrated in communities that already have alternative workforce development options. Obviously that doesn’t make this wrong but it looks like a significant missed opportunity.

The library universe has always been relatively static but in recent years this has changed as net more libraries have closed. The pre‑COVID trend was already modestly negative: net losses of 4 outlets in FY2017, 12 in FY2018, and 24 in FY2019. Then FY2020 hit: 42 openings, 182 closures, a net loss of 140 outlets in one year. FY2022 (+30) and FY2023 (+42) show some recovery, but permanent closures overwhelmingly occur in rural communities operating on thin margins with no realistic path to reopen. In terms of hours open, suburban libraries are back to pre-COVID levels but rurals remain lower by 4%. Note, that because budgets are dependent on tax revenues there is frequently a year or two delay in the actual impact of budget contractions as tax revenues flow through county and state budgets.

Weak property tax bases, eroding state aid, and limited ballot capacity in rural areas create conditions where closures become not just possible but likely (see post #1). A branch closed during a budget crisis might reopen if the crisis is cyclical. But if the underlying fiscal conditions are structural, reopening never happens. The communities losing outlets are not suburban districts with strong tax bases and seasoned ballot campaign teams. They are small, rural, low‑income communities where the library may be the only public institution for miles.

The aggregate recovery numbers don’t erase that gap. The amount of public money discussed to support AI data centers is both absurd and disgusting when just a relatively small amount of additional public funding could be better spent through the public library system.

Michael Cairns is a senior publishing executive and consultant. He can be reached at michael. cairns @ outlook.com or 908 938 4889

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